A Map Explaining the Formation of Modern Armenian Genetics
I created this map to illustrate how modern Armenian genetics formed. The map represents the genetic situation during the Middle Bronze Age, roughly 4,000 years ago. I deliberately chose these colors to emphasize the clinal nature of the genetic landscape.
The yellow area represents the Trialeti–Vanadzor / Lchashen cultural sphere, which shows high levels of steppe ancestry. In this context, these populations are usually associated with Etiuni.
The orange region has lower steppe ancestry, approximately comparable to that of modern Armenians. We have a few samples from this zone, including Van–Urartu.
The red region shows little or no steppe ancestry and instead has a stronger affinity to Levantine Bronze Age populations. It is notable that these areas were historically inhabited by Hurrians. We have some samples from Şırnak and Batman, although they are not recent enough to fully represent the situation during the Middle and Late Bronze Age. The Dinkha Tepe 2 sample dates to the Middle Bronze Age, but it comes from northwestern Iran, so it is not exactly representative of the red zone.
Further south, the Levantine lowlands were inhabited by populations genetically similar to the red region, but with a more pronounced southern shift. Numerous samples from sites such as Alalakh and Ebla illustrate this pattern.
Modern Armenians derive ancestry from all three regions—orange, yellow, and red. For most Armenians, the largest contribution comes from the orange region. Eastern Armenians show additional ancestry from the yellow zone, while Armenians from southwestern regions have significant orange ancestry but also some contribution from the red zone.
An important point to understand is that the orange region itself can be modeled as a mixture of yellow and red. In theory, this would allow us to reduce the number of colors used in the model, but doing so risks oversimplifying the situation. In practice, some alleles typical of the red region appear among eastern Armenians, while Armenians from southern and western areas also carry some alleles associated with the yellow region. Overall, these overlapping contributions cause all Armenian groups to cluster closely together on PCA plots.
Another key point is that modern Armenians do not show any significant additional ancestry from outside these colored regions. Of course, some sporadic influences occurred during later historical periods, but these are generally negligible and can usually be ignored in population-level calculations. Armenians who settled outside these regions sometimes acquired local ancestry, but such cases are historically documented and can be easily identified.
A reasonable question arises: why are samples from these three regions not directly used to model Armenians?
The issue likely relates to how modeling tools operate. When very closely related populations are used as sources, the standard errors increase, whereas using more distant populations often reduces them. Despite some exaggerated perceptions, the populations represented by these three colors are actually quite close genetically. For this reason, it can sometimes be easier to choose a more distant source from south of the red zone and obtain statistically feasible models. There may also be other technical factors involved that I am not fully aware of.
However, the real issue is not the models themselves. For example, Lazaridis also used Levant_N as a distal source and argued that its contribution increased after 600 BCE, yet this did not lead to sensationalist interpretations in the media. The real problem is the lack of historical interpretation accompanying many genetic models. When genetic results are not interpreted in the context of known historical processes, it is unsurprising that others interpret them according to their own narratives.
In this case, the relevant historical events are well known. One is the existence of a Hurrian cultural belt across the southern regions of historic Armenia, which likely had a more southern genetic profile. Another is the formation and expansion of the Urartian Empire. These two factors alone are sufficient to explain the main features of the modern Armenian genetic profile, although other events may also have played a role.
Hopefully, our paper with Armen Petrosyan will soon be published in English. In it, we discuss this period of genetic shift in eastern Armenia, and I hope it will help those who want to better understand this complex historical process.
PS below in the comments You can see a model mixing yellow and orange with high standard errors. Made by
Nareg Asatrian
