Attempt to redo the models from recent papers.

 

Attempt to Redo the Models from Recent Papers

Modeling Armenia LBA as a simple mixture of Kura-Araxes and Catacomb fails: the p-value is too low (pic. 1).

Adding an Anatolian population such as İkiztepe_C improves the p-value. This approach was used in Skourtanioti (2024), and the model becomes feasible (p ≈ 0.2).

Using Çamlıbel Tarlası_LateC instead of İkiztepe further improves the p-value. This was done in Yediay (2024), yielding p > 0.3.

Replacing the Anatolian component with Leyla Tepe (from what is now Azerbaijan) improves the model much more (p > 0.7). However, the standard errors increase substantially because Kura-Araxes and Leyla Tepe are too close genome-wide. To reduce the standard errors, I need to adjust the settings (right populations). That will require some time, but I think it is already quite clear what is happening here.

Finally, when I add Ukraine Neolithic hunter-gatherers (Ukraine_N HG) as an additional source, the p-value rises to ~0.9, i.e., close to certainty. The standard errors also improve slightly, although they still require further refinement.

Conclusions

The populations that contributed to the formation of the Trialeti–Vanadzor culture (TVC) likely came from what is now the Krasnodar region, where they acquired a minor Ukraine_N HG component. They then moved via Dagestan, mixed with older South Caucasus Chalcolithic groups in the Kura-Araxes lowlands, and subsequently split into two branches:

• One branch moved upstream into the Kura–Debed region and formed the TVC.

• The other moved into the Urmia and Van basins and formed the Van–Urmia culture, although their genetic impact there appears to have been lower than in the TVC.

The Y-DNA associated with these groups should therefore be sought in the Krasnodar region, especially lineages such as L584, I2a2b, and PF331. Identifying Y4364 will be more difficult. It is even possible that the true homeland of Proto-Yamnaya was also located there.