Grooved ware (ակոսավոր խեցեղեն), the missing piece of puzzle.

 Grooved Ware (ակոսավոր խեցեղեն), the missing piece of the puzzle

We have had many discussions in this group about the modern genetic profile of Armenians—how, where, and when it formed. Nareg Asatrian has frequently posted genetic qpAdm models showing the modern Armenian profile as a mixture of two populations. Similar models have been reproduced by other commentators and have started to appear in academic papers as well, most notably Hovhannisyan et al. 2025.

Although these models are statistically feasible and useful as rapid abstractions, the real historical events behind the formation of the modern genetic profile were more complex. Two key events are usually emphasized: the Middle Bronze Age migration from the Steppe and the Urartu expansion (840–600 BCE) with its policies of relocations. More than 1,500 years separate these two events, and it would be unusual if nothing remarkable occurred between them. In reality, a significant demographic event affected historic Armenia around 1200 BCE, known as the spread of Grooved Ware, also called Nairi Ware.

Based on the comprehensive study by Guido Guarducci, the oldest forms of Grooved Ware, which he calls Proto-Nairi, appear in the South Caucasus, mostly in Lchashen culture sites, and in northwestern Iran (1400–1300 BCE). The attached map is from Guarducci’s book. The red areas represent Proto-Nairi. The color coding can be misleading, as western Georgia is included even though it did not have Grooved Ware. The best way to interpret the map is to focus on the archaeological sites (dots) rather than the colors.

Around 1200 BCE, all the regions colored green suddenly witness the appearance of this new type of grooved pottery. Some scholars believe this event was associated with large migrations. However, there is considerable debate about the geographic origin of the migrants. Summarizing the opinions, they can be grouped into three categories:

1. Grooved Ware in the green zone came from the South Caucasus.

2. Grooved Ware in the green zone expanded from the Van basin.

3. The origins of Grooved Ware in the green zone were in the upper Euphrates, where a large number of sites with this type of pottery are found.

The pottery found in the red and green zones is not completely identical but shares important features. It is clear that the initial impulse came from the South Caucasus. However, a direct migration of Lchashen people into all the green lands would imply that modern Armenians should have higher Steppe ancestry than they do today. Another possibility is that the initial impulse from the South Caucasus affected groups living in the Van basin or upper Euphrates, who later expanded independently, spreading a genetic profile different from that of Lchashen. Such a scenario aligns better with the modern Armenian genetic profile.

Of course, later Urartian activities were also important in shaping the modern Armenian genetic profile. However, the Grooved Ware period is crucial for understanding the genetic history of the Highlands prior to the formation of Urartu. Unfortunately, the currently available ancient DNA is insufficient to favor any of the aforementioned theories, and, as usual, we will have to wait for new data.